Can a Bitaxe really find a Bitcoin block?
Yes. A Bitaxe does the same SHA-256 work as a warehouse of industrial miners, only far less of it. Every hash has the same tiny chance of being a winning block, so a Bitaxe can win any second. It is just very unlikely in any given year. A Bitaxe Gamma at about 1.2 TH/s has about 1 in 15,000 chance per year at the difficulty on 2026-10-05. Over ten years of non-stop mining, the chance is still only about 0.066%.
If it does win, the whole block reward goes to the address in its settings on a solo pool: 3.125 BTC plus fees, about $271,739 at $86,431 per bitcoin.
What are the odds for each Bitaxe model?
| Model | Hashrate | Chance per day | Chance per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitaxe Ultra | 450 GH/s | 1 in 15,000,000 | 1 in 40,000 |
| Bitaxe Supra | 600 GH/s | 1 in 11,000,000 | 1 in 30,000 |
| Bitaxe Gamma | 1.2 TH/s | 1 in 5,500,000 | 1 in 15,000 |
| Bitaxe Gamma Turbo | 2.15 TH/s | 1 in 3,100,000 | 1 in 8,400 |
Odds scale directly with hashrate: twice the hashrate, twice the chance. Try your own setup in the odds calculator, which uses the live network difficulty.
How are these odds calculated?
The network difficulty, about 132.7 trillion on 2026-10-05, says how many hashes the whole network needs on average to find one block: difficulty times about 4.3 billion. Divide your hashes per year by that number and you get the expected number of blocks per year. For a Bitaxe Gamma that is a tiny fraction, which converts to the chance shown above.
Three things follow from the math:
- No memory. Each hash is independent. A Bitaxe that has mined for two years is no closer to a block than one switched on today.
- Difficulty moves. The network adjusts difficulty about every two weeks. When more miners join, everyone's odds drop.
- Best share is not progress. AxeOS shows a "best difficulty" figure. Even a best share close to the network difficulty is still a miss.
Which small miners have actually found blocks?
The documented cases, checked against the blocks on mempool.space:
- Block 887,212, 10 March 2025. Found on Solo CK by a miner with Bitaxe-class hashrate. Reward about 3.150 BTC. Reported by Cointelegraph.
- Block 957,382, 10 July 2026. Found on Public Pool by a Bitaxe Gamma running at about 995 GH/s. Reward about 3.138 BTC. Reported by Cointribune.
- Block 960,804, 3 August 2026. Found on Solo CK by a small solo miner; the hardware was not stated. Reward about 3.157 BTC. Reported by Bitcoin.com News.
These are rare events, a few blocks among the roughly 52,000 mined each year.
What happens if your Bitaxe does find a block?
On a solo pool, the pool builds each block template so that the coinbase transaction, the first transaction in the block, pays your address. If your Bitaxe finds the winning hash, that block is broadcast to the network and the reward lands at your address in the block itself, minus the solo pool's fee. You do not need to claim it.
Bitcoin's rules make newly mined coins wait 100 blocks, roughly 16 to 17 hours, before they can be spent. Your wallet will show the coins as immature until then.
On a pool such as DirectPool, a block found by your Bitaxe is a block for the whole pool. Its reward is split by shares over the PPLNS window like any other pool block, and your part is paid in the same coinbase. Read how PPLNS works.
How much hashrate would give an even chance per year?
For a 50% chance of at least one block in a year at the 2026-10-05 difficulty, you would need about 12.5 PH/s. That is about 10,433 Bitaxe Gammas, or a small industrial mining site. It puts a single home miner's odds in proportion.
Why do small solo wins keep making the news?
Because many small miners run at once. Each one has a tiny chance, but together they add up, so every so often one of them wins. The winner gets a headline; the thousands who never win do not. That does not mean your own odds are better than the table above. Treat each news story as a reminder that the chance is real, not that it is likely.
Should you mine solo with a Bitaxe?
If you enjoy the lottery and accept that you will most likely never win, solo is a fair choice. The miner costs about the same to run either way, roughly 160 kWh a year for a Gamma.
If you would rather see small amounts arrive, mine on a pool. On DirectPool, a Bitaxe's shares earn a slice of every block the pool finds over a 7-day window, paid directly in the block. DirectPool is small, so blocks are irregular, and balances under 10,000 sats are carried forward. Solo vs pool mining compares the two in detail.
Can you improve your chances?
- More hashrate. The only thing that changes the odds. A NerdQAxe++ at about 4.8 TH/s has four times the chance of a Gamma.
- Overclocking. Adds a few percent of hashrate for more heat and power. See safe Bitaxe settings.
- Uptime. A miner that is off has no chance at all. Stable WiFi and cool temperatures matter more than tweaks.
Changing pools, worker names or share difficulty does not change the odds.