What are the odds your miner finds a block?
Live numbers from the Bitcoin network and from DirectPool. Solo, a small miner is buying a lottery ticket. In a pool, it gets a small slice of every block the pool finds.
- Network difficulty
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- DirectPool, 1 h avg
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- Next block value
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Live from the pool server. Pool chance assumes your hashrate is added to the current pool hashrate.
| Solo | With DirectPool | |
|---|---|---|
| Per day | ||
| Per month | ||
| Per year |
These are chances, not schedules. Hashing has no memory: a miner that has not found a block is not closer to one.
From one Bitaxe Gamma to the whole network
Each step is ten times the last. Each square's area is its hashrate, so the first square is this miner and the last one is every miner on Bitcoin together.
- ×11.2 TH/sBitaxe Gamma
- ×1012 TH/sNerdOctaxe Gamma, 9.6 TH/s; Avalon Nano 3S, 6 TH/s
- ×100120 TH/sAntminer S19 series (used), 95 TH/s; Avalon Q, 90 TH/s
- ×1,0001.2 PH/sAntminer S21, 200 TH/s
- ×10,00012 PH/s
- ×100,000120 PH/s
- ×1 million1.2 EH/s
- ×10 million12 EH/s
- ×100 million120 EH/s
- ×800 million958 EH/sThe whole Bitcoin network, about 800 million times this miner
How it is worked out
A block needs on average difficulty x 2^32 hashes. Hashing is memoryless, so the chance of at least one block in a period is 1 - exp(-hashrate x seconds / (difficulty x 2^32)).
The pool column uses DirectPool's one hour average hashrate plus yours. Your slice of a pool block is your hashrate over the pool total, minus the 1% fee. Real PPLNS payouts follow the shares you actually sent, so they move around this estimate.
A month is 30.44 days and a year 365.25 days. Miner hashrates are approximate typical figures; type your own reading for a closer answer.
Check the payouts
The block value used here is the exact coinbase the pool is working on now. See the live payout split or compare miners.